What transpired yesterday on Wall Street is one day for the history books. I had predicted this would happen about a year and a half ago, and again about eight months ago when I appeared on Neal Cavuto’s show. That the landscape of Wall Street could be altered this rapidly is something we should think about. Yesterday was the worst day on Wall Street since right after the 9/11 attacks, with a fallout of some financial giants that we thought were untouchable.
Here’s my view of this situation. We survived and prospered after 9/11, and we will do the same this time. The components are different, but I believe the government is doing the right thing with this financial mess. They have worked hard and long, but a mess is a mess. I won’t equivocate on that. A couple of years ago I saw the indications that the world was in for a tough period of time so I can’t say I’m terribly surprised.
Here are some points to consider. The price of oil, which is the life blood of all economies, is down. That’s good news. I’ve already written about that subject and about the many tankers full of oil treading water and going nowhere.
Out of chaos comes reinvention. That can be a good thing, although it won’t be easy. There appears to have been a lack of balance, and this is one way of starting something new that might be more effective. Necessity creates a place for creativity, and having the facility to implement a plan B strategy is something everyone should strive for. I’ve learned that having a plan B is common sense. We’ll just have to come up with one, and it could eventually be better than what we’ve had.
As a Manhattan real estate developer, my observation is that there will be more people looking for jobs than will be looking for apartments. That’s not great news for the real estate investing in New York City, but it’s not dire. The market here is doing quite well, but not as well as two years ago. The market has always been cyclical so it’s not a tremendous worry.
A lot of things are and will continue to be changing, in our country as well as around the world. I think they will be changing for the better, and within a year we will see the results of the current chaos settling into place in a positive way. Be resilient, be patient, be creative and remain positive. Reinvention can be a good thing for everyone.
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17 Comments
I could have the first of the two origin story co-spanning movies made in time for a mid-late summer 2009 release date, based on the freshly revised first movie script I'm within days of completing, if, I could get the production ball rolling, essentially now, or say the end of the month. How might one be able to garner such immediate support without having a background in the financial world.
The first of the debut movies is a cheaper project to make than the follow-on second, capper movie - that second movie being an even bigger likely bet for becoming a mega box-office blockbuster. First one likely can be made for somewhere under 20 million. Even with an additional 20 million promo budget, the movie would have a pretty good chance at already breaking into a 20 million profit range by having a pretty good shot at pulling in at least a 100 million box-office domestically.
Everything else would be additional profitable gravy, the foreign box-office, the tie-ins, the distribution and broadcast licenses, all the licensed merchandise, the DVD, net streams, and rentals, the new comic book title runs, the publishing deal, the movie soundtrack, the possible pop hit theme song, and so forth. I mean this will be quite huge.
So what would be your advice to me on the matter?
Look for a puzzle of intervention. Why?
It's becoming too look obvious. Too close.
I am an I.R.Professional with twenty years of the rollercoaster ride.
To be preventitive of these crashes, the government should impose a halt trading on days when the news causes people to try to sell their positions and thus a downward spiral.
Same as when someone yells 'FIRE" and everyone runs for the exit door....
The psychology of the market cannot even be quantified with fundamentals anymore, as it is based purely on emotions.
I also believe that the four day work week could benefit the health of everyone and slow things down a bit and shift the dynamics back to to a better balance.
MORESO, the 30 day turnaround time for payments should be restructured, as the timing is the only pure problem in meeting financial obligations.
The main problem is that everyone needs more time: to pay the mortgage etc.
The 30 day pay scheduels were based on 9-5 jobs and a very structured society in bygone years of payday Friday.
Some people have to spend so much time negotiating more time to pay, that it is actually hurting the usual productive work week over-all and dealing with creditors has become a daily job within itself.
I will take advantage of this marketing opportunity to market myself...stock promoter for hire, tight floats only and no morans.
WILL WORK FOR SCRAP GOLD AND BARRELS OF OIL.
Women in Business,
Leesa Kaczmarzyk
I think good environment at home will sustain the job.
First I want to start by saying that your note is full of wisdom. I really enjoyed reading it, and I could definitely feel the words coming from a successful man who always took time to think and evaluate situations before making a decision and implementing it. Now I would like to give my personal opinion about the changes that have been occurring lately in the Global and American market. I believe, just like you, that the economy is cyclical and that the American economy will get back on track eventually. The government and the fed have been getting more and more efficient, through time, at countering sudden and negative events that affect the US national economy. (9/11, meltdowns, oil crisis…)
As much as I believe that the American economy will get better, I do have the certainty that America is very unlikely to witness, in the near future, the economic boom and prosperity of the 90’s. The main reason behind my thinking is the way the Global economy is changing.
Once an economics professor told me "Physically, there are not enough resources out there for the whole world population to consume the same way Americans consume."
I totally agree with him. Today, with the rise of the emerging world, more people have access to things that their parents and grandparents did not have access to, personal incomes in China, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Morocco, Romania, Brazil, Russia… are increasing faster than personal incomes in western Europe, north America, and Japan. Thanks to Globalization, many developing countries are moving towards more prosperous, modern, mass consumption economies. In a very near future, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) will have more rich people than the whole population of the United States. Eventually, the personal income national averages will get closer and closer around the world: Wages in emerging countries are rising, while wages in the first world (on average) are either increasing slowly, stagnating, or even decreasing.
I believe that the conservatism of some Western executives is causing the financial catastrophes that we are witnessing. Socialists, patriots, and other conservatives are preventing multinationals from spreading their activities more around the world and focus less on the American market. It is easy to agree that we now live in a more Global economy, but is it easy to admit it? That is the real question. By admitting that our companies operate in a global economy, we have to accept the fact that we cost too much for the labor, products, and services that we provide, and that we have to let things naturally evolve towards a more balanced economy around the world as more and more countries are opening their markets to investments which allows other people around the world to be productive and generate income for themselves and their families.
That is my personal opinion about the changes happening in the American and World economy.
Best regards,
Chafik Abdellaoui
Email: chafikabdellaoui@gmail.com
Every economy in the world has its ups and downs. It's a sinusoidal relationship. A smart person would understand this fact and take action to do the right thing . A not so smart person will stare at the news and not do anything. You've got to know, its the survival of the fittest. When the times get tough, the tough get going. That's just the way the world works. You can't blame the floor's uneven, if you can't dance properly. Make the best of what you alredy know, and let it benefit you and your loved ones.
Regards,
Prince Dudley
Systems Engineer
http://birdseyesview.blogspot.com
Change should develop at a reasonable pace. Wall Street is making huge decisions using over-night express. I agree that some changes may be necessary. Thoughtful planning, open discussions, and concern for the investors money is a time honored tradition that I hope doesn't change.
Wall Street needs a correction in values not a hand out from the government that allows business as usual.
It seems that many don't pay attention to having fail safe positions when looking at government programs. Perhaps they should take your advice and make sure that all systems are backed up with back-up plans to make sure that we go forward into the future as risk free as possible.
Thanks for your insight, you spark thought into issues and topics that many would not attempt.
Dr. Raymond Jewell, Economic Advisor
company started by Pat Welsh who is the son of the Welsh of GE....
Donald Trump's name has been dropped around as an "approver" of this plan, or scheme or a pyramid, and I don't believe it...so here I am leaving this comment in the Shock Market, just to see if anyone is reading.....let me know.
foxynan@bellsouth.net
To the best of our knowledge Mr Trump has no involvement with "Shop to Earn" . Thanks for commenting.
By Marion TD Lewis, Esq.
I'm afraid that this time there's no plan B, plan B only exist when there's a plan A, but in this case plan A has never existed, this is the American economy, who would doubt about the system a few years ago?, nobody, as I have answered in this blog to Dr Jewell (if the comment is approved) at the entry :Creative Entrepreneurialism, if in our business we are used to sell garbage, one day we will became dirty, because at the end the garbage will surround us, and we will be sitting at the top, at the top of what?, (I have preferred not to use the words that I have in mind to describe the situation), but one thing is clear for me, the economy will start to run, people start to expend money again, but to make it possible, people must have money to use, money that today they don't have , what the government has to do to give money to people so they can start to use it an move the economy?, this is the question, I think that in the USA, it happened almost the same as in Europe (is were I live), the increase of prices and taxes have removed away the Acquisition power from people, must taxes and prices have a reduction of 40% and this is the amount of percentage that we will give back to citizens?, are prices real?, analysis is simple, when the people with the minimum salary can not live in a decent way because their expenses to have a normal life are superior than their income, the results are predictable, and more predictable it people have mortgaged over their possibilities, all mortgages are good meanwhile people pays them, but when the cost of life increase, then is less money to live and the final consequence is stop paying, then are mortgages bad? Or is the system failure?, when prices raise without control, the economy is in serious danger, look what happened with mortgages without control. prices and taxes must be according the earnings of citizens, that means stability and social peace, we don't have to forget that the global economy depends of consume, if we are not capable to give money back to people and so reactivate consume, even the stock markets can be in deep danger.
Here in Spain at the Mediterranean sea, our main business is tourism and construction, we still one of the preferred destiny’s of tourism in Europe, our city is one of the cities with more skyscrapers per m2, and we keep going on, I lead a group of business people and I always create illusion, so we are in this moments of crisis planning to develop an amazing leisure project unique in Europe, and may enclose a big land in witch is possible to build the tallest building in the world,( I am working on it) here we are planning to grow while others are scared and stopped , our bank system is perhaps the only one who have resist the crisis at Europe. I don’t know in the USA, but here there are a lot of business opportunities, money is running away from stocks markets and start to move in to the good real state witch is always a refugee and special now witch the prices are lower. So illusion we don’t loose, my recommendation is to keep gong on in one way or another, in the Usa or in Spain, great ideas make possible great business, maybe a different kind of business concerning the changing moments in today’s world, maybe we must change our way to do business too, many concepts will change after this, and the one who is ready to adapt to the new times will be in the line to success, that’s what I am doing right now, taking out good ideas that I’ve had in mind for years waiting for the right moment and no better moment like this one because there is a lot of sensibility by the authorities that when thinks are running ok it doesn’t exist.
This is like Murphy’s law, - If we keep thinking that we are ill because the system is infected, then we will be ill.
http://bricoeconomia.blogspot.com
The biggest problems in America are Leadership, and the anti constitutional monetarism. It wasn't long ago that we had 13 colonies, 13 currencies, and..... freedom of enterprising. Everyone is trapped. I've had solutions for years. I have lived in circumstances which you would not have survived.
Do I have your attention yet? You should pay attention, because the first will be last, and the last will be first....
Sincerely,
Kathleen M. Wells
Garland Coat of Arms